According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction market Polymarket now prices an 87% probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, indicating strong market conviction in near-term easing into the FOMC (source: Polymarket via @KobeissiLetter). @KobeissiLetter adds that this would be the third policy cut of 2025 with inflation above 3%, a macro mix crypto traders monitor for potential shifts in BTC and ETH risk appetite around the decision window (source: @KobeissiLetter). The elevated Polymarket odds flag concentrated event risk for rate-sensitive assets into the meeting timeline (source: Polymarket).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve is about to cut rates while US inflation is above 3% and rising, which they link to a powerful bid in gold, source: The Kobeissi Letter. According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold is up approximately +30% year to date and has tripled the S&P 500’s return despite an ongoing equity bull market, signaling an unusual divergence, source: The Kobeissi Letter. According to The Kobeissi Letter, this not-normal price action argues for trend-following exposure to gold and relative-value positioning versus the S&P 500 until the policy and inflation backdrop changes, source: The Kobeissi Letter.